• | the restrictions on the conduct of Splunk’s business prior to the consummation of the Merger, which may delay or prevent Splunk from undertaking business opportunities that may arise before the completion of the Merger and that, absent the Merger Agreement, Splunk might have pursued; |
• | the fact that an all cash transaction would be taxable to Splunk Stockholders that are U.S. Holders; |
• | the fact that, under the terms of the Merger Agreement, Splunk is unable to solicit other Acquisition Proposals; |
• | the significant costs involved in connection with entering into the Merger Agreement and completing the Merger (many of which are payable whether or not the Merger is consummated) and the substantial time and effort of Splunk management required to complete the Merger, which may disrupt its business operations and have a negative effect on its financial results; |
• | the risk that the Merger might not be completed and the effect of the resulting public announcement of termination of the Merger Agreement on the trading price of Splunk common stock; |
• | the fact that the completion of the Merger requires certain regulatory clearances and consents, including under applicable antitrust laws and certain foreign investment laws, which clearances and consents could subject the Merger to unforeseen delays and risks; |
• | the fact that Splunk’s directors and officers may have interests in the Merger that may be different from, or in addition to, those of Splunk Stockholders generally (see below under the caption “—Interests of Executive Officers and Directors of Splunk in the Merger”); and |
• | the possible loss of key management or other personnel and potential distraction of employees of Splunk during the pendency of the Merger. |
The foregoing discussion of reasons for the recommendation to adopt the Merger Agreement is not meant to be exhaustive but addresses the material information and factors considered by the Board of Directors in consideration of its recommendation. In view of the wide variety of factors considered by the Board of Directors in connection with its evaluation of the Merger and the complexity of these matters, the Board of Directors did not find it practicable to, and did not, quantify or otherwise assign relative weights to the specific factors considered in reaching its determination and recommendation. Rather, in considering the information and factors described above, individual members of the Board of Directors each applied his or her own personal business judgment to the process and may have given differing weights to differing factors. The Board of Directors based its unanimous recommendation on the totality of the information presented. The explanation of the factors and reasoning set forth above contain forward-looking statements that should be read in conjunction with the section of this proxy statement captioned “—Forward-Looking Statements.”
Opinion of Qatalyst Partners LP
The Company retained Qatalyst Partners LP (“Qatalyst Partners”) to act as its financial advisor in connection with a potential transaction such as the Merger and to evaluate whether the Per Share Merger Consideration to be received pursuant to, and in accordance with, the terms of the Merger Agreement by the Splunk Stockholders (other than Parent or any affiliate of Parent) was fair, from a financial point of view, to such holders. The Company selected Qatalyst Partners to act as the Company’s financial advisor based on Qatalyst Partners’ long-standing relationship with the Company as well as Qatalyst Partners’ qualifications, expertise, reputation and knowledge of the business and affairs of the Company and the industry in which it operates. Qatalyst Partners has provided its written consent to the reproduction of its opinion in this proxy statement. At the meeting of the Board of Directors on September 20, 2023, Qatalyst Partners rendered to the Board of Directors its oral opinion, subsequently confirmed in writing, to the effect that, as of the date thereof and based upon and subject to the various assumptions, qualifications, limitations, and other matters set forth therein, the Per Share Merger Consideration to be received pursuant to, and in accordance with, the terms of the Merger Agreement by the Splunk Stockholders (other than Parent or any affiliate of Parent) was fair, from a financial point of view, to such holders. Qatalyst Partners delivered its written opinion, dated September 20, 2023, to the Board of Directors following the meeting of the Board of Directors.
The full text of Qatalyst Partners’ written opinion, dated September 20, 2023, is attached hereto as Annex C-1 and is incorporated by reference herein. The opinion sets forth, among other things, the assumptions made, procedures followed, matters considered, and limitations and qualifications of the review undertaken by
Qatalyst Partners in rendering its opinion. Splunk Stockholders should read the opinion carefully in its entirety. Qatalyst Partners’ opinion was provided to the Board of Directors and addresses only, as of the date of the opinion, the fairness, from a financial point of view, of the Per Share Merger Consideration to be received pursuant to, and in accordance with, the terms of the Merger Agreement by the Splunk Stockholders (other than Parent or any affiliate of Parent), to such holders, and it does not address any other aspect of the Merger. It does not constitute a recommendation as to how any holder of shares of Splunk common stock should vote with respect to the Merger or any other matter and does not in any manner address the price at which Splunk common stock will trade or otherwise be transferable at any time. The summary of Qatalyst Partners’ opinion set forth herein is qualified in its entirety by reference to the full text of the opinion, which is attached to this proxy statement as Annex C-1.
In arriving at its opinion, Qatalyst Partners reviewed a draft of the Merger Agreement dated September 20, 2023, certain related documents and certain publicly available financial statements, and other business and financial information of the Company. Qatalyst also reviewed certain forward-looking information relating to the Company prepared by the management of the Company, including the Baseline Management Projections, the Sensitivity 1 Projections and the Sensitivity 2 Projections (which we refer to, together, as the “Management Projections”), each as described in more detail in “—Management Projections—Summary of Management Projections.” Additionally, Qatalyst Partners discussed the past and current operations and financial condition and the prospects of the Company with senior management of the Company. Qatalyst Partners also reviewed the historical market prices and trading activity for Splunk common stock and compared the financial performance of the Company and the prices and trading activity of Splunk common stock with that of certain other selected publicly traded companies and their securities. In addition, Qatalyst Partners reviewed the financial terms, to the extent publicly available, of selected acquisition transactions, participated in certain discussions and negotiations among representatives of the Company, Parent and their financial and legal advisors, and performed such other analyses, reviewed such other information and considered such other factors as Qatalyst Partners deemed appropriate.
In arriving at its opinion, Qatalyst Partners assumed and relied upon, without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of the information that was publicly available or supplied or otherwise made available to, or discussed with, Qatalyst Partners by the Company. With respect to the Management Projections, Qatalyst was advised by the management of the Company, and Qatalyst Partners assumed based on discussions with the management of the Company and the Board of Directors, that the Management Projections had been reasonably prepared on bases reflecting the best currently available estimates and judgments of the management of the Company of the future financial performance of the Company and other matters covered thereby. Qatalyst Partners expressed no view as to the Management Projections or the assumptions on which they were based. Qatalyst Partners assumed that the terms of the draft Merger Agreement reviewed by Qatalyst Partners would not differ materially from the final executed Merger Agreement, and that the Merger will be consummated in accordance with the terms set forth in the Merger Agreement, without any modification, waiver or delay of any terms or conditions. In addition, Qatalyst Partners assumed that in connection with the receipt of all the necessary approvals of the Merger, no delays, limitations, conditions or restrictions will be imposed that could have an adverse effect on the Company or the contemplated benefits expected to be derived in the Merger. Qatalyst Partners has relied upon, without independent verification, the assessment of the Company and its legal, tax or regulatory advisors with respect to legal, tax or regulatory matters. Qatalyst Partners did not make any independent evaluation or appraisal of the assets or liabilities (contingent or otherwise) of the Company or its affiliates, nor was Qatalyst Partners furnished with any such evaluation or appraisal. In addition, Qatalyst Partners relied, without independent verification, upon the assessment of the management of the Company as to the existing and future technology and products of the Company and the risks associated with such technology and products. In arriving at Qatalyst Partners’ opinion, Qatalyst Partners was not authorized to solicit, and did not solicit, interest from any party with respect to an acquisition, business combination or other extraordinary transaction involving the Company. Qatalyst Partners’ opinion has been approved by its opinion committee in accordance with its customary practice.
Qatalyst Partners’ opinion is necessarily based on financial, economic, market and other conditions as in effect on, and the information made available to it as of, the date of the opinion. Events occurring after the date of the opinion may affect Qatalyst Partners’ opinion and the assumptions used in preparing it, and Qatalyst Partners has not assumed any obligation to update, revise or reaffirm its opinion. Qatalyst Partners’ opinion does not address the underlying business decision of the Company to engage in the Merger, or the relative merits of the Merger as compared to any strategic alternatives that may be available to the Company. Qatalyst Partners’ opinion is limited to the fairness, from a financial point of view, of the Per Share Merger Consideration to be received pursuant to, and in accordance with,
the terms of the Merger Agreement by the Splunk Stockholders (other than Parent or any affiliate of Parent), and Qatalyst Partners expressed no opinion with respect to the fairness of the amount or nature of the compensation to any of the officers, directors or employees of the Company or any of its affiliates, or any class of such persons, relative to such consideration.
The following is a brief summary of the material analyses performed by Qatalyst Partners in connection with its opinion dated September 20, 2023. The analyses and factors described below must be considered as a whole; considering any portion of such analyses or factors, without considering all analyses and factors, could create a misleading or incomplete view of the process underlying Qatalyst Partners’ opinion. For purposes of its analyses, Qatalyst Partners utilized, among other things, the Management Projections and the third-party research analyst consensus estimates of the future financial performance of the Company as of September 19, 2023 (which we refer to as the “Street Estimates”). Some of the summaries of the financial analyses include information presented in tabular format. The tables are not intended to stand alone, and in order to more fully understand the financial analyses used by Qatalyst Partners, the tables must be read together with the full text of each summary. Considering the data set forth below without considering the full narrative description of the financial analyses, including the methodologies and assumptions underlying the analyses, could create a misleading or incomplete view of Qatalyst Partners’ financial analyses.
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
Qatalyst Partners performed an illustrative discounted cash flow analysis, which is designed to imply a range of potential per-share present values for Splunk common stock as of July 31, 2023 (which is the end of the Company’s most recent completed fiscal quarter and most recent publicly available balance sheet date), with respect to each of the Baseline Management Projections, the Sensitivity 1 Projections and the Sensitivity 2 Projections, by:
• | adding: |
○ | the implied net present values of the estimated future unlevered free cash flows (which are referred to as the “UFCF”) of the Company based on each of the Baseline Management Projections, the Sensitivity 1 Projections and the Sensitivity 2 Projections, as applicable, for the third quarter of fiscal year 2024 through fiscal year 2034 (which implied present values were calculated using a range of discount rates of 12.0% to 14.0%, based on an estimated weighted average cost of capital for the Company); |
○ | the implied net present value of a corresponding terminal value of the Company, calculated by applying to the Company’s estimated UFCF in fiscal year 2034 based on each of the Baseline Management Projections, the Sensitivity 1 Projections and the Sensitivity 2 Projections, as applicable, a perpetuity growth rate range of 3.0% to 5.0% (which was chosen based on Qatalyst Partners’ professional judgment and experience), and discounted to present value using the same range of discount rates used in item (a) above; and |
• | subtracting: |
○ | net debt, as of July 31, 2023 (including approximately $42 million of non-current investments and pro forma for the paydown of the Company’s 2023 Notes, due on September 15, 2023), as provided by management of the Company; and |
• | dividing the resulting amount by the number of fully diluted shares of Splunk common stock outstanding (calculated using the treasury stock method, taking into account the restricted stock units, performance-based restricted stock units, and in-the-money stock options) as of September 18, 2023, all as provided by management of the Company, with each of the above-referenced estimated future UFCFs and terminal values having also been adjusted for the degree of estimated dilution to current Splunk Stockholders through each respective applicable period (approximately 2% annually throughout the projection period) due to the estimated net effects of equity issuances and cancellations related to future equity compensation, which estimates of future dilution were provided by management of the Company. |
Based on the calculations set forth above, this analysis implied a range of values for Splunk common stock as follows:
Forecast Scenario | | | Implied Value Per Share Range of Splunk Common Stock ($) |
Sensitivity 1 Projections | | | 120.66–179.78 |
Sensitivity 2 Projections | | | 100.95–147.31 |
Baseline Management Projections | | | 132.50–196.81 |
Selected Companies Analysis
Qatalyst Partners reviewed and compared selected financial information and public market multiples for the Company with publicly available financial information and public market multiples for selected companies. The companies used in this comparison were those companies listed below, which were selected by Qatalyst Partners in its professional judgment, based on factors including that they are publicly traded companies in similar lines of business to the Company, have a similar business model, have similar financial performance or have other relevant or similar characteristics.
Based upon third-party research analyst consensus estimates as of September 19, 2023, and using the closing prices as of September 19, 2023, for shares of the selected companies, Qatalyst Partners calculated, among other things, the fully diluted enterprise value divided by (i) the consensus revenue estimates for calendar year 2024 (which are referred to as the “CY24E revenue multiples”) and (ii) the consensus levered free cash flow estimates for calendar year 2024 (which are referred to as the “CY24E LFCF multiples”), for each of the selected companies, as shown below:
Selected Software Companies | | | CY2024E Revenue Multiple | | | CY2024E LFCF Multiple |
Datadog Inc. | | | 12.5x | | | — |
Dynatrace, Inc. | | | 8.6x | | | 41.6x |
JFrog Ltd. | | | 6.2x | | | — |
Tenable Holdings, Inc. | | | 6.2x | | | 30.3x |
Varonis Systems, Inc. | | | 5.9x | | | — |
Elastic N.V. Inc. | | | 5.6x | | | 47.0x |
Okta, Inc. | | | 5.5x | | | 35.8x |
PagerDuty, Inc. | | | 4.6x | | | 27.4x |
DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. | | | 4.6x | | | 14.9x |
Jamf Holdings Corp. | | | 4.0x | | | 18.5x |
