Based on an analysis of the CY2024E revenue multiples for the selected companies, Qatalyst Partners selected a representative multiple range of 4.0x to 7.0x. Qatalyst Partners then applied this range to the Company’s revenue estimates for fiscal year 2025, based on each of the Baseline Management Projections, the Management Sensitivities and the Street Estimates. For purposes of this analysis, Qatalyst Partners used the Company’s fiscal year ending January 31, 2025, as a proxy for calendar year 2024.
Based on an analysis of the CY2024E LFCF multiples for the selected companies, Qatalyst Partners selected a representative multiple range of 15.0x to 27.0x. Qatalyst Partners then applied this range to the Company’s levered free cash flow estimates for fiscal year 2025, based on each of the Baseline Management Projections, the Management Sensitivities and the Street Estimates. For purposes of this analysis, Qatalyst Partners used the Company’s fiscal year ending January 31, 2025, as a proxy for calendar year 2024.
Based on the fully diluted shares of Splunk common stock outstanding as of September 18, 2023 (calculated utilizing the same methodology as used in the above discounted cash flow analysis), this analysis implied a range of values for Splunk common stock as follows:
Public Trading Multiples | | | Implied Value per Share Range of Splunk Common Stock ($) |
Enterprise Value / CY2024E Revenue Multiple | | | |
Street Estimates | | | 90.78–164.62 |
Management Sensitivities(1) | | | 93.99–170.04 |
Baseline Management Projections | | | 96.32–173.99 |
Equity Value / CY2024E LFCF Multiple | | | |
Street Estimates | | | 92.19–165.74 |
Management Sensitivities(1) | | | 111.83–199.90 |
Baseline Management Projections | | | 114.50–204.55 |
(1) | As estimated revenue and estimated levered free cash flow for calendar year 2024 are each the same based on the Sensitivity 1 Projections and the Sensitivity 2 Projections, such projections are shown together as the “Management Sensitivities.” |
No company included in the selected companies analysis is identical to the Company. In evaluating the selected companies, Qatalyst Partners made judgments and assumptions with regard to industry performance, general business, economic, market and financial conditions and other matters. Many of these matters are beyond the control of the Company, such as the impact of competition on the Company’s business or the industry in general, industry growth and the absence of any material adverse change in the Company’s financial condition and prospects or the industry or in the financial markets in general. Individual multiples or mathematical analysis, such as determining the arithmetic mean, median, or the high or low, is not in itself a meaningful method of using selected company data.
Selected Transactions Analysis
Qatalyst Partners compared sixty-eight selected public company transactions, including transactions involving companies participating in similar lines of business to the Company or with similar business models, similar financial performance or other relevant or similar characteristics.
For each of the selected transactions listed below, Qatalyst Partners reviewed, among other things, (a) the implied fully diluted enterprise value of the target company as a multiple of third-party research analyst consensus estimates of the next-twelve-months’ revenue of the target company (which are referred to as the “NTM revenue multiples”), (b) the implied fully diluted enterprise value of the target company as a multiple of third-party research analyst consensus estimates of the next-twelve-months’ EBITDA of the target company (which are referred to as the “NTM EBITDA multiples”), and (c) the implied fully diluted equity value of the target company as a multiple of third-party research analyst consensus estimates of the next-twelve-months’ levered free cash flow of the target company (which are referred to as the “NTM LFCF multiples”).
Announcement Date | | | Target | | | Acquiror | | | NTM Revenue Multiple | | | NTM EBITDA Multiple | | | NTM LFCF Multiple |
07/31/23 | | | New Relic, Inc. | | | Francisco Partners Management, L.P. & TPG Fund | | | 5.8x | | | 30.4x | | | 48.1x |
05/04/23 | | | Software AG | | | Silver Lake | | | 2.6x | | | 14.4x | | | — |
