Australian Aged Care
How a sector initiation models demographics and government funding before comparing three operators on the same DCF framework.
- Rating
- Price target
- AUD 5.90 Estia, 4.50 Regis, 2.12 Japara
- Published
- January 23, 2015
- Length
- 126 pages
- Sector
- Aged care
- Market
- Australia
What the analyst argued
Deutsche Bank initiated on Australia's newly listed aged care operators, arguing the sector offered a defensive earnings stream backed by an aging population, regulated supply that creates barriers to entry, and a fragmented industry ripe for consolidation. The July 2014 'Living Longer Living Better' funding reforms opened access to market-linked accommodation payments, materially raising potential returns. The analysts weighed this against heavy reliance on government funding under fiscal pressure, concluded material cuts were unlikely before the 2017 review, and preferred Estia and Regis (both Buy) over Japara (Hold), using low/mid/high-case DCFs to set targets.
Lead analysts: David Low, Dave Johnson.
Inside the report
- 01Executive Summary
- 02Listed providers compared
- 03Aged care industry Overview
- 04Aged care funding
- 05Risks
- 06Estia Health
- 07Japara Healthcare
- 08Regis Healthcare
- 09Appendix A - Facilities list
- 10Appendix B - ACFI explained
- DCF
- P/E
- EV/EBITDA
- Comparable companies
Includes a multi-year earnings model with the income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow forecasts the valuation is built on.
Read the report
126 pages
Tap the cover to open the PDF.Published by Deutsche Bank on January 23, 2015 and hosted here for educational use; the report and everything in it belongs to Deutsche Bank. The rating, estimates, and price target are the analysts’ view on that date, more than a decade ago, and are not a recommendation today. Copy first uploaded October 5, 2026.
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